Your Shipment Leaves Nov 1. Tariffs Drop Nov 3. Now What?

Hey founder,

Let me walk you through something real.
Not theoretical.
Not “case study” fluff.
This has already happened—and it’s going to happen again this year.

🎯 The Real Timeline Trap

Let’s say your factory wraps up on Oct 28.
Forwarder books your shipment on Oct 30.
Vessel leaves China on Nov 1.

Then,
USTR announces a new tariff hike on Nov 3.
And your container, which was perfectly timed just 48 hours ago?
Now it lands with a minimum 20% more duties.

You're not early enough to avoid the new ruling.
You're not late enough to reroute.
And no one—your factory, your freight partner, your customs broker—gave you a heads-up.

Your $5 landed cost is now $6.75.
That’s $17,500 gone on a single 10,000-unit shipment.
And you still haven’t paid for marketing.

This Is Why We Simulate

This isn’t just about “planning ahead.”
It’s about running live simulations using your real SKUs, supplier lanes, and timelines.
You’re not guessing. You’re mapping decisions and pre-building reactions before you’re boxed in.

Here’s how to run your own Tariff + Freight Simulation this week (yes, do it this week):

✅ Build Your Own Risk Map in 4 Moves

1. Routing Plan With Key Decision Points

Start simple. Google Sheet.
Column 1: Factory → Port → Vessel ETD → Customs → Warehouse

Then ask:
“Where in this flow do I lose the ability to pivot?”
That’s your decision deadline.
If your forwarder books a ship on Oct 30, that’s probably the last day you can adjust anything meaningful. Lock it in.

2. Tariff Cost Simulation: Run 2–3 What-Ifs

Take your current landed cost. Break it down into:

• Product

• Freight

• Duty

• Fees

• Final per unit cost

Now duplicate it:

• Scenario A: add 15% tariff

• Scenario B: add 25%

• Scenario C: apply FSV or bonded exemption

What’s the total dollar impact per shipment? If your margins are thin, this is your early warning system.

3. Escalation Plan: Who Do You Call First?

Every shipment has at least 3 people you need on speed dial:

• Your supplier lead

• Your freight forwarder

• Your customs broker or 3PL contact

Now go deeper:

• What’s their backup contact?

• Who do you escalate to if they go dark for 24 hours?

• Do they know your urgency around BFCM?

You don’t want to find out in the middle of a port delay.

4. Alternative Entry Plans: East, West, or Bonded

List your current warehouse or 3PL.
Then add at least two alternatives:

• East Coast or West Coast hub

• FBA-prep center

• Bonded warehouse

• Partner fulfillment (if you’re tight on space)

Why? Because if you only have one plan, and customs holds your container for 6 days, you miss your BFCM arrival window.

Routing flexibility is margin insurance.

Want to Build This in 90 Minutes?

Honestly, this is what we do with our clients every week at Move Supply Chain.
This month, we’re mapping every single shipment landing in October and November.
We're pre-running tariff escalation, logistics reroutes, and even warehouse backups in case port congestion hits again.

You don’t have to be perfect.
You just have to stop pretending “it won’t happen to you.”

See you next week,

Lara
Founder, Move Supply Chain

Helping DTC brands launch smarter and ship stronger