3 Must-Have Supply Chain KPIs for Scaling DTC Brands

Hey there,

It’s the last week of the month… and you know what that means — it’s time for our TOP 3 SERIES!

If you’re new here, welcome! At the end of every month, I round up my top 3 insights, tools, or strategies in supply chain,  all based on what I’m seeing with real DTC brands behind the scenes.

Most of the struggling DTC brands I meet have two things in common:
They’ve got at least one SKU that took off.
And… they have no visibility on how their supply chain is actually performing.

When growth hits, everything breaks.
Margins slip. Cash gets stuck. Fulfillment scrambles. And no one’s sure who’s in charge of what.

So this week, I’m not here to throw buzzwords at you.
Just 3 real KPIs that we use every single day to clean up ops, unlock cash, and prep brands for BFCM and beyond.

1. Inventory Turnover Ratio

What it tells you: Is your inventory moving, or just sitting and eating your cash?

Formula:
Inventory Turnover = COGS ÷ Avg Inventory Value

Let’s say you sold $1M worth of goods last year, and your average inventory value was $250K.
That gives you 4.0 turns/year. Meaning you sold through your entire inventory 4 times.

Benchmarks we aim for at Move:
 ✅ 4–6 turns/year → Healthy
⚠️ <2 turns → You’re sitting on too much
🚨 >8 turns → Too lean, expect stockouts

How to track this:

• Pull 12-month COGS from your P&L
  

• Average inventory from Shopify, Inventory Planner, or just a GSheet
  

• Plot monthly. Trends matter more than snapshots.
  

Who should own it: Your inventory planner or whoever’s managing reorders.
If you’re solo? You still need this. Takes 10 minutes in a spreadsheet.

🎁 Pro tip: If you want to ask questions after computing for your Inventory Turnover Ratio, join our Slack group so you can directly ask an expert, for free.

2. Forecast Accuracy (% Deviation from Plan)

What it tells you: How close are your forecasts to what’s actually selling?

If you forecasted 10,000 units and only sold 8,500 — that’s a 15% deviation.
Formula:
|Forecast – Actual| ÷ Forecast × 100

Here’s how I break it down:

• <10% deviation = Solid
  

• 10–20% = Acceptable but worth improving
  

• 20% = Cash traps or stockouts waiting to happen

How to track this:

• Pick your top 5 SKUs
  

• Compare forecast vs. actual sales monthly
  

• Roll the data over 3 months to spot consistent issues

Who should own it: Ideally a demand planner. If not, combine ops + marketing to own this together.

I covered a related example on this YouTube episode called "The Most Expensive Supply Chain Mistakes DTC Founders Make." Check it out.

3. Landed Cost Per Unit

What it tells you: What’s your actual cost to bring one unit to your warehouse?

Too many brands only look at product + packaging.
But your real landed cost includes:

• Product: $4.00
  

• Packaging: $0.50
  

• Freight: $1.25
  

• Duties: $0.75
  Total: $6.50/unit

Miss the freight or duty increases? You’re making pricing and ad decisions on outdated costs.

How to track this:

• Pull your freight and customs invoices
  

• Layer them per SKU
  

• Update monthly if you import frequently

Quick win: One client switched to flat-packed inserts and saved $0.80/unit — just by seeing the breakdown clearly.

📌 We have a template for this here. Or just reply to this email with “Landed Cost,” and I’ll send it over.

Real-Life Fix: From Forecast Chaos to $140K Unlocked

Here’s a classic example from a brand we helped that sells wellness kits.
They weren’t new to the game—sales were decent—but their ops were lagging behind. The symptoms?

• Overstocked slow-movers

• Missed reorders on top SKUs

• Freight costs quietly climbing

• Nobody owned the numbers

Before:

• Inventory Turns: 2.2

• Forecast Deviation: 32%

• Landed Cost creep: unnoticed +$0.60/unit

So here’s what we did—step by step:

Step 1: Audit the Forecast vs. Reality

We pulled their forecast vs. actuals for the past 6 months. Turns out, 3 of their top 5 SKUs were overestimated by 25–40%, while their best-seller was consistently underforecasted.

→ Action: We rebuilt the forecast using a 3-month rolling average, then layered in promo calendar adjustments (hello, influencer drops!) to reflect real demand patterns.

Step 2: Build a True Landed Cost Model

They were only tracking product + packaging—no freight, no duties, no hidden warehouse fees.

→ Action: We built a landed cost sheet per SKU, including all import-related costs. One SKU had quietly gone from $5.80 to $6.40/unit without anyone noticing.

 Step 3: Improve Turns with ABC Planning

We grouped SKUs using ABC analysis.

• A items: top 20% revenue drivers → weekly forecast reviews

• B/C items: reviewed monthly with adjusted reorder points

→ Action: We cut reorders on 5 underperformers and reallocated cash to double inventory on the proven best-seller (with lead time cushion).

 Step 4: Ownership + Dashboards

Nobody owned the KPIs before. So we assigned them:

• Forecast Accuracy → Brand manager

• Landed Cost → Ops lead
  Inventory Turns → Supply planner

→ Action: We set up a shared dashboard in Google Sheets with red/yellow/green alerts for every metric.

 90 Days Later:

• Inventory Turns: improved from 2.2 → 4.1

• Forecast Deviation: down to 9%

• Working capital unlocked: $140K before BFCM

And not just on paper—they used that freed-up cash to secure faster shipping lanes and bump ad spend in October.

Tools You Can Use

1. Google sheets - All 3 KPIs

2. Inventory planner app - Forecast + turnover

3. Daasity or click up - dashboard

4. Freightos - cost estimates

Your Turn

Here’s what I’d do if I were you:

1. Pick your 5 best-selling SKUs

2. Calculate these 3 KPIs manually

3. Identify 1 area to optimize (cost, turnover, or accuracy)

4. Assign ownership (even if it’s just you)

5. Set a Q4 target before BFCM hits

These 3 numbers will tell you more about your business than 10 marketing dashboards ever could.

💡 Need hands-on help? Move Supply Chain is your fractional team for inventory planning, sourcing, and supplier management, especially when your Q4 can't afford mistakes.

Let us help you get it right → movesupplychain.com

You’ve got this,
Lara