Hey there,
Happy New Year! 🎉
Let's talk about the most expensive habit in DTC supply chain: guessing.
I think we should order more of SKU X. I hope the supplier delivers on time. I feel like Q2 will be slower.
Think. Hope. Feel.
These are guessing words. And every time you guess, you're gambling with your profit.
📦 The Real Cost of Guessing
I worked with a brand last year that guessed on their holiday inventory. They "felt" like demand would be 20% higher than last year.
Demand was actually 45% higher.
They stocked out on their top 3 SKUs by December 10th. Lost an estimated $180K in sales. Plus the customers who went to competitors and never came back.
One guess. Six figures gone.
And this happens everywhere:
Guessing on suppliers = late shipments and expedited freight costs
Guessing on demand = stockouts during peak or dead cash in slow movers
Guessing on margins = scaling SKUs that actually lose money
The brands that scale don't guess. They build systems.
🎯 What "Stop Guessing" Actually Looks Like
Replace "I think we need 5,000 units" with a reorder point formula based on lead time and safety stock.
Replace "I hope they deliver on time" with a supplier scorecard that tracks actual performance.
Replace "Q2 feels slower" with historical data analysis and marketing alignment meetings.
When you have the data, you don't guess. You decide.
🛠 Your January Challenge
This month, pick ONE area where you're guessing:
Option A: Inventory, build a simple reorder point system
Option B: Suppliers, create a quarterly performance review process
Option C: Demand, schedule bi-weekly marketing alignment meetings
Option D: Profitability, calculate actual landed cost by SKU
One system. One month. Let it compound.
By December 2026, you'll have 12 systems. A completely different business.
📺 Watch Next
This video goes deep on the guessing problem: The DTC Supply Chain System That Increases Growth by 176% (Demand, Supply, Cash Loop)
It breaks down the Demand → Supply → Cash loop with real DTC examples, showing how to replace reactive decisions with a system designed for predictable, sustainable growth, to help you stop guessing and build clarity moving into the new year.
📦 Free Resource
If you’re scaling but still guessing where the real supply chain issues are, this will help.
We created a 15-minute Supply Chain Diagnostic to show DTC founders where their system is actually leaking and what to fix first.
You’ll walk away with a score across Margins, Operations, Vendors, and Execution, plus a clear recommendation that can unlock $15k+ in savings.
Until next time,
Here's to a 2026 with less guessing and more clarity.
Lara
P.S. What's the ONE area you're going to stop guessing about this month? Reply and let me know. I read every response.
